Domestic economy on the rebound
The Danish economy is showing some resilience with export-oriented industries that are less sensitive to business cycles and a recovering domestic consumption. With inflation dropping back quickly towards the end of 2023 (0.7% in December 2023), consumer confidence has started to improve and domestic consumption is expected to continue its recovery in 2024 as low inflation – forecasted to average around 2.4% – and decent nominal wage growth will support rising real disposable income. Exports are still expected to rise, despite a slowdown, exceptionally supported by a strong pharmaceutical sector. The Danish krone is pegged to the euro so the Danish Central Bank will follow in the ECB’s footsteps by gradually lowering interest rates, which will help support investments and consumption.
Corporate insolvencies fell by 11% year-on-year in 2023 for the second consecutive year, taking the number back down to below the pre-pandemic level, an averaging out at the number seen between 2017 and 2019. This is a good indicator for 2024 as revenue and jobs lost in bankrupt entities have been lagging, given that mainly smaller or inactive companies went bankrupt earlier and were still rising in much of 2023. However, the last months of 2023 showed a slowdown in jobs lost and active company insolvencies that is expected to follow the same trend in 2024 with easing inflation, lower interest rates and a brighter outlook for domestic demand.
Continuous double positive balances
The 2024 outlook reflects a robust fiscal position, which is characterised by strong government spending aimed at bolstering the economy. Despite this, a slight narrowing of the public surplus is anticipated. Simultaneously, Denmark's public debt level is poised for a marginal decrease, maintaining its low level in comparison to peer countries. This fiscal prudence underscores the country's careful management of public finances, positioning Denmark favourably in terms of debt sustainability.
Denmark's current account balance in 2024 reflects a structurally positive outlook, driven by consistent surpluses in both the balance of goods and services. This stability is rooted in the economic structure, where a robust export sector and competitive service industries contribute to the overall positive trend. However, occasional volatility is caused by the sizable presence of large domestic companies. Despite this volatility, the current account surplus is anticipated to remain roughly at the same level as in 2023.
Potential friction with the unions on the horizon
Denmark signed a defence agreement with the United States in December 2023 allowing American soldiers and military equipment to be based on Danish soil. Denmark is poised for potential friction between the government and unions due to several contentious measures implemented in recent times. The legal removal of a bank holiday in 2023 has stirred dissatisfaction among the workforce. Against this backdrop this year’s negotiations with unions could be plagued by conflict as 2024 will be marked by cuts to job measures, the introduction of "utility jobs" for immigrants on government support, and easier labour conditions for foreign labour.
The political landscape in Denmark remains relatively stable under the centrist government, which comprises the centre-left Social Democrats, centre-right Liberal Party, and centrist Moderates. Given the government's current unpopularity, polling at around 33%, the likelihood of an early election in 2024 appears minimal (next election is to be held before October 2026). Of particular significance is the upcoming European Parliament elections scheduled in June 2024.