Recession, inflation, Ukraine, China, monetary policy... 2023 as seen by Jean-Christophe Caffet, Coface Chief Economist01/12/2023
China has started its reopening process faster than expected. The economic, social, and fiscal costs of the zero-covid policy have created many uncertainties for the economy. Here is our forecast for 2023.
Beyond the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, the global monetary tightening and the multiple constraints on Chinese growth paint a gloomy outlook. In the short term, the economy seems to be settling into a regime of "stagflation", where almost no growth and rapidly rising prices coexist. The possibility of a global recession, meanwhile, is becoming clearer.
In this context, Coface is making general downward revisions to its GDP growth forecasts and its country and sectoral assessments. Check them out!
The rating agency Moody’s, on 11th October 2022, has confirmed the financial strength rating (Insurance Financial Strength Rating – IFSR) for Coface at A2. The agency has also changed the outlook for Coface to positive from stable.
The impact on corporate payments in 2022 appears to be moderate and comparatively lower than the shock on the economy. However, companies are vigilant in the short-term and very pessimistic about the future.